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In this week’s episode of The Climate Dad, host Mike Smith reflects on the significant climate stories of 2024. He discusses the growing importance of insurance in climate risk management, the role of AI in climate solutions, the urgency of electrification, and the shifting political landscape’s effect on climate action. Mike emphasizes the need for proactive measures to address climate change, encouraging listeners to take actionable steps like planting trees as a symbol of hope and commitment to a sustainable future.
00:00 Year in Review: Climate Highlights of 2024
08:42 AI's Dual Role in Climate Solutions
21:36 The Urgency of Climate Change: 1.5 Degrees Celsius
Mike Smith (00:17)
Welcome to episode 17 of The Climate Dad, the environmental podcast where we talk about and explain the news and science of climate change. I'm your host, Mike Smith, and I'm a father of two great kids and the founder of Aclymate, the net zero climate solution for businesses without sustainability teams. Today, we'll be doing a wrap up of the year's biggest climate stories. But first, here's your climate minute.
Ember is reporting that the UK Energy Office has released plans to overhaul their power systems to completely remove fossil fuels by 2030. It's a stunning and aggressive goal and it builds upon a 20-year rapid expansion of emissions-free electricity. Where renewables now make up 46 % of electricity production in the UK and nuclear adds another 14 % of emissions-free electricity.
Semafor's Tim McDonald is reporting that ExxonMobil is bucking its historic avoidance of creating electricity due to a contract with some AI data centers and the requirement for power being generated using low emission sources. ExxonMobil, as one would expect, is intending to generate power using fossil fuel generation, but will capture and sequester the emissions instead of releasing them to the atmosphere.
It's unclear how many leaking emissions there will be, but we're going to find out. As discussed in a previous episode, geothermal energy is an underappreciated low-emissions energy source, and a new report from the International Energy Agency is now claiming that it's potentially the second largest source of clean energy after solar and ahead of both onshore and offshore wind.
Reporting from Gautam Naik at Bloomberg Green discusses the soon to be in effect insurance law in Italy, specifically starting on January 1st, every company in Italy must insure against the common threats of climate change, including floods, landslides and other natural hazards. Reporting goes on to state that Europe is the fastest warming continent and that the European Environment Agency has seen an average increase of 2.9 % in climate related insurance claims over the past 15 years.
There is worry that despite the 5 billion euros committed to a reinsurance mechanism by Italy, insurance companies will stop covering higher risk areas similar to what is happening within the United States.
The Washington Post is reporting that a contract to electrify the U.S. Postal Service's vehicle fleet with EVs is way behind schedule. As part of the signature climate bill known as the IRA, the Postal Service is expected to buy 60,000 Next-Generation Delivery Vehicles, or NGDVs, with 3,000 of them to have already been delivered by now. The Post is reporting that only a paltry 93 have been delivered so far, putting in doubt the survival of the program in the new year and in the new administration.
And to wrap up, finally, a bit of good climate news. Caroline Spears of the organization Climate Cabinet highlighted to David Roberts on the Volts podcast that despite the negative general trend of national politics on climate in 2024, there were some some pretty bright spots. She views Climate Cabinet's work as the "Moneyball for climate politics", and that they look for low cost, high leverage options on climate in non-federal elections. Think of this as being state and municipal elections and public utility commissions.
If you'd like to check them out, please do so and go over to climatecabinet.org. Anyways, Climate Cabinet has had some success. Of the 172 candidates that they supported, 52 % were elected. One example was the anti-climate supermajority that they broke in the North Carolina legislature by helping to elect Lindsey Prather in an R+4 district. Another was their successful targeting of four different anti-climate legislators in New Mexico. And with that, hidden bit of climate news,
There's your climate minute.
With this being the last episode of 2024 and coming out on Christmas, I wanted to do a look back on the year that was 2024 from a climate perspective and talk about a few of the stories that I think were the biggest. I've never one been personally one for New Year's resolutions, but both as a father who tries to model good behavior and as a former fighter pilot who understands the importance of debriefing what happened after every flight, I think it's worthwhile to take a step back and look at the trends this year that
have happened and how they will shape our world moving forward. I'll also include a few things about how this might affect your kid's future, how to talk about it, and a few things you may want to try to do for you and your family. Let's start with insurance. As we talked about in episode 7 with our friend Nick Gardner at Premiums for the Planet and on today's Climate Minute, I think insurance is going to be a major forcing factor on climate action in the coming years. Lost in all the noise around climate,
and its political and social aspects are its really strong negative impacts on business. We've spoken about that a lot before. Talking about the environmental, social and governance factors of a business, you know, is just core to about mitigating risk. You can ignore all the foolishness on social media about quote woke capitalism. Managing risk is just a core part of leadership for any organization. In my Navy days, for example, we practiced ORM, operational risk management.
And a different three letter word, ESG, has done well, much the same throughout business. Anyways, the company's most sensitive to risk are those that provide insurance for the risks of our world. And in places as diverse as Italy, Florida, California, and elsewhere, insurance companies are increasingly saying they're no longer interested in covering that risk. One of the things that Nick said during our conversation is about how insurance companies have the powers of government in many ways, but they move at the speed of business.
And I think that's an important thing for us all to understand because that's leaving a lot of people in the lurch as their most valuable asset, their home is now at best becoming increasingly expensive to insure or at worst becoming uninsurable. News stories this year talked about homeowners losing insurance in wildfire prone areas of California and flood prone areas of Florida.
And even if you're not one of those that are now uninsurable, an analysis done by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that homeowners in counties representing the top 20 % of increased risk had premiums grow by 22 % in just three years.
These counties roughly include the entire United States Southeast, most of the land stretching from the Mississippi River to the Rockies, and also most of the US Southwest. That's a lot of the country. And because of the economics of insurance, that means that this heightened disaster risk and the premiums has caused an average rise in premiums for everybody of about $500 per year for all households, with most of the rise happening within the past year itself. Florida, the worst from an absolute premium perspective,
now sees the average cost of home insurance exceeding $11,000 per year in 2023, growing by 42 % that year alone. We don't know yet the final numbers for 2024, but based upon the loss of insurability in that state and elsewhere, it's certainly not great.
So what can you do about it? Well, the blunt thing is, there's not much other than react to it. There may be some reinsurance work done by the government, but I personally would expect that to be temporary. Ultimately, the scale of losses will only increase and it's going to exhaust both the insurance industry and local government's ability to fund it. To plan for your children's future and your financial future, my recommendation is to move to a less risky area on climate and consequently less expensive areas to insure.
That may be pretty drastic, but I want you to think about this as being beyond just coastal flooding and wildfire as climate risks too. The hidden risk underlying most of fire is actually drought, and that is going to be driving a lot of negative impacts moving forward as well. Anyways, this may seem drastic and it may seem really expensive in the short term, but I'd really consider it an investment in the mid to long term.
These areas suffering from insurance premium risks will increasingly become economically burdened and devalued. And those that are likely to do well will see property values rise disproportionately. And frankly, the costs and availability of insurance are just the canary in the coal mine.
Our second big story on climate of 2024 is that of artificial intelligence or AI. And if you haven't heard about AI, I really think he might be living under a rock. I mean, how are you even listening to this podcast if you haven't heard of it? I know that my son talks about AI on a near daily basis, which is just crazy to me because he barely has access to a screen and to my knowledge, no AI.
In all seriousness, many pixels have been consumed in the discussion about AI, and you can go read about it elsewhere on what it is, how it works, how it's going to affect your life and your work. Perhaps you can even use AI to find it out. But lost in the story of AI has been its effect on climate. there's actually some good stuff, and we should talk about it. One, AI is proving to be a really powerful tool in tackling some of these climate challenges. For instance, it's helping energy grids become smarter and more efficient.
You can imagine a system that can predict when wind turbines will produce the most electricity or shift energy loads to avoid blackouts during heat waves. Google's DeepMind is an example. It's optimizing the energy use in data centers, cutting their cooling costs by up to 40%. That's pretty huge considering data centers consume about 1 % of the world's electricity already. AI also powers predictive models to track climate trends, monitor deforestation, and manage carbon markets more effectively.
These tools are also giving policymakers and businesses the data that they need to act decisively. You can also look to agriculture. AI is helping farmers to reduce water use, predict crop yields, minimize fertilizer runoff, all things that produce or boost productivity. This doesn't just save resources. you're also cutting greenhouse gas emissions. Now the flip side, and of course there's a big one.
AI doesn't run on magic. It needs computing power. Lots and lots of it. It's way better than crypto, which just kind of burns computers and energy for I'm not really sure what. But training an advanced AI model can consume as much energy as five cars throughout their entire lifetimes, And we're not just talking about training the AI, running these systems 24/7 adds a lot to the load of the electrical networks.
Data centers, the homes of AI, are a big part of this story. They're projected to account for up to 4 % of a global electricity demand by 2030, since we just talked about it being 1%. That's a quadrupling of demand for electricity from data centers. And this is driven in part by AI's increasing prevalence. While improvements in energy efficiency are helping to offset this growth, the sheer scale of AI adoption can still pose challenges.
This increase in energy consumption has already caused some really wild and previously unexpected side effects. For example, Microsoft has completely failed in its decarbonization goal where just a few years ago was an absolute leader. This has in turn led companies like Exxon to try to generate low emissions electricity, which is again bananas because we're talking about Exxon. And it even has caused Microsoft
to start a contract to restart a long closed infamous Three Mile Island nuclear facility to help power data centers because of its need for low carbon electricity. Bananas. AI is just like a massive curve ball in our climate future. And we're not totally sure where everything's going to end up. But in my estimate, perhaps some of the biggest impacts of AI will be that it's going to be putting companies with actually public climate goals like Microsoft.
into the driver's seat of energy policy, which is I don't think what a lot of people were expecting only a few years ago. I think that's going to have like really far reaching consequences and outcomes on climate. And I think that AI will have a negative climate impact in the short term as this electricity consumption goes up. But in the longer term, because of the uses of AI and the ability of putting better climate actors in the driver's seat on energy, it's going to be a net benefit.
I do know here at Aclymate, we're starting to use AI for doing the repetitive annoying tasks around finding patterns of documents, economic data, emissions reductions. And that's just good for the climate. We're a climate company, help people to reduce their emissions. The more we can drive adoption and make things efficient, the better it is. But we also know that the more we use it, the more energy it consumes. So we do limit our use of it to scenarios where the efficiency outcomes exceed the costs. We're not stuffing AI in where it doesn't belong.
We use it where it's the right tool for the job. And frankly, that's what I'd recommend that you do. And more importantly, what you tell your kids. AI is kind of like a hammer. You can use it to build a house or to break a window. And using it as to build part of our future, it's unavoidable. But I also worry about it being a large unregulated technology. If our recent past is reflective of our near future. I worry about AI being a little bit like social media.
which bluntly has destroyed political discourse and so many people's and so many children's mental health. I personally am limiting my children's access to AI except for when supervised and will make sure to teach them about its use as dangerous as they grow up. It may make them a little uncool in the short term and I know my son wants to play with the tool, but I'm certain it's going to help them grow up healthily and also do a little good for the planet because we definitely know that our government won't do anything about it.
Now, if you'll humor me, I'm going to spend 30 seconds talking about Aclymate before your climate dad joke of the week. If you think about the ways to improve your impact on the planet or just maybe your company is being required to report its footprint, we'd love to help you over here at Aclymate, where we have the easiest, most intuitive climate solution for your business. We'll get you a baseline environmental assessment, show you ways to reduce your carbon footprint, and we're going to get you on the path to net zero. It will help your environmental branding to win new customers and keep your most valuable ones already.
Attract and retain the talent you need from the climate generation and our green business certification program will help you complete a sustainability audit. Maybe you're looking to improve those EcoVadis scores or win other certifications like CDP, B Corp or Green Business Benchmark. Or maybe you're looking to purchase carbon offsets but need a reliable carbon credit broker. At Aclymate, we got you covered. We got both a friendly climate accounting solution and also the best carbon offset program and leading selection of sustainable projects on the web.
Now, are you ready for your climate dad joke? Here it is. Why did the wind turbine break up with the coal plant? It didn't see any future together.
Sorry, actually, I'm not really sorry.
Anyway, related to AI is our energy present and our energy future. As we discussed in episode 15 about human flourishing, access to energy is an essential part of our ability to live modern lives. And limiting access to energy for the world's poor is a guaranteed way to prevent their well-being. But simultaneously, those most threatened by a warming world are those who have the least in resources and energy.
We're going to have to figure out a way to both expand energy access and reduce climate emissions. There's a little evidence that it can be done too. For example, US per capita emissions are now roughly where they were in 1940. Kind of shocking, isn't it? For context, in 1940, approximately 45 % of homes within the United States lacked complete indoor plumbing.
And US per capita emissions have been falling steadily since 2005. This isn't a short-term trend. But there are a few couple of hidden stories here. One, the US is an increasing emissions exporter. We're pulling fossil fuels up and selling them abroad. And though that may not measure on our climate balance sheet, we definitely share in that negative climate impact. The next four years are expected to see about 20 % of all US gas
also known as the potent greenhouse gas methane, 20 % of US production of natural gas to be exported. Not good. Two, the ramp of electrification partnered with the expansion of AI data centers has caused one of the brightest spots for decarbonization to grow a little dim, and that's the electricity sector. As we talked about in episode eight, the US saw a whopping 30 % increase in solar electricity generation in the first seven months of 2024.
when compared to the same period the year before. Coupled with the expansion of other renewable energy sources, that would seem to be great news. But the problem is, is even with that growth in renewable energy, it only met 45 % of the increased electricity demand. The remaining 55%, you guessed it, it came from coal and gas plants, which unfortunately extends their working lives and improves the economics of production for them.
Unfortunately, as we said in episode eight, success is retreating from us about as quickly as we're achieving it. And that can feel a little bit like shifting goalposts, but it's just the physics of the underlying problem that drive it. It's kind of a bummer. Now, does that mean that you should delay electrification? Hell no. No, electrify everything right now as much as you can. Electrifying as much of your life remains the easiest way to hop onto the decarbonization work of others.
The grid is under immense pressure to decarbonize from everyone, from politicians to consumers to major corporations. mean, again, Microsoft started up a nuclear disaster area to source clean electricity. I'm also here to strongly encourage you to install solar on your home. Since I installed solar panels in my home, the way I think about energy has just changed. I produce it as well as consume it.
And that means that I'm a much more efficient in the way that I think about production and specifically I can also say that I haven't paid an electricity bill in nearly a decade.
Also, consider making your next vehicle an EV. At a minimum, give a few a test drive. They're fun and cheap to operate, and they're a good example of living your values to your kids. And take it from me, your kids will see the decisions you're making. And if you explain a bit about why you're doing so, you'll be impressed by how much they pick up. So again, electrify everything. The trend is in the right direction, and you might as well be part of that. Speaking of your kids seeing what you choose, the next climate story of 2024 is that of the political landscape.
As we talked about in episodes 11 and 13, the election of Trump in November is, as you would expect, not good for the climate. And if he didn't stand up for the climate this election season, you really miss an opportunity to make significant climate impact. The people you know and love, they picked up on it. And unfortunately, our lives got harder in having to deal with the outcomes now. So I'm sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but climate dad's always going to shoot you straight.
Now what?
Don't give up. Just don't give up hope. We talked about that before, but in the first Trump admin, the globe made really incredible climate progress. We radically bent the curve of climate emissions, changed the default outcome of business as usual from apocalyptic to merely catastrophic and mobilize ungodly amounts of climate finance. But also expect that you're now going to have to work and to work harder to make the progress we want.
I personally really happen to like the idea of Climate Cabinet, which we talked about in the climate minute. We need to stop pretending that the next national election will fix everything and move back to what used to be the standard maxim in environmentalism. Think globally, act locally. Now, if you're fired up and ready to go to the ramparts, run for office. Those folks at Climate Cabinet could probably help get you slotted in. Now, if you can't fit that into your life, and I get it,
At a minimum, you can volunteer with local political organizations and candidates that support climate. I know they need your help. Make sure actually that they know that you're doing it because you care about climate. Help to drive point the home to every politician you meet that this is something important for you as a voter. All right. Not everybody can do that. Maybe your life's too busy. I would tell you, you should probably stop making excuses, but some of us really can't. The very bare minimum you can do.
is talk to your boss. A very large part of your footprint are the emissions associated with your employment. You can ask your company what they're doing on climate and tell them that's a priority to you. But whatever you do, do something. And your power on climate, as always, is the relationships that you have. Talk about climate to everyone and often. It can be on things like social media like TikTok and BlueSky. But more importantly, it's with the people that you know and especially the people you love.
Of course, that includes your children or the children that you're related to. So let's help the next generation grow. You need to give them some hope. Whatever you do in politics and business, be an example to the next generation. My recommendation is to plant something, preferably a tree. I know this can make me seem like a big tree hugger, but when I put the largest climate reforestation project in US history together, we planted two million trees.
be proud of that to the day I die. But what gave me the most pride were not the two million trees that I helped to plant, but the hundred trees that my family planted personally. Of all the things we did on that trip to Northern California, where they were at, we were skiing near Lake Tahoe, hiking in the Redwoods, going to the Pacific Ocean. My kids, my wife, and my father all loved planting those trees the most.
It's an act of hope and it's an act of commitment. So plant a few trees.
Our final 2024 story on climate is that we are rapidly blowing past 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming above the pre-industrial average. This year was itself about 1.5 degrees warmer than it should be. And frankly, that's pretty scary because that happened much, much faster than the models had predicted.
Why is that? Well, the thing is, is the models are naturally conservative. They tend to under predict what's coming because they don't want to seem alarmist, even if it is really, really alarming. And we're now experiencing the consequences of climate regularly, whether it was that 75 % of the U.S. didn't see any rain in October, the collapse of insurance markets, the hitting of the Philippines with four different category four typhoons in 10 days.
or that the Arctic is predicted to be completely ice-free by the summer of 2027. It's happening hard and fast, and it's only going to get worse. Frankly, if you're melting the Arctic, it's hard to tell the kids that Santa lives at the North Pole when he'd need a boat every summer to keep from drowning.
Alright, so how does that all square with the idea of giving hope to the next generation? I remain an optimist. The consequences we're now experiencing were born of decisions made decades ago. And like the old adage, the best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. But the second best time is now. Plant some physical trees, but also plant some metaphorical ones too. Make the decisions now. And many of the decisions we're making now?
for good ones.
Alright, here are today's three big takeaways. One, consider the future insurability of your home as a warning about the future value of your home. You should act accordingly. Two, we're making progress on decarbonizing electricity, and even if it's imperfect, your mantra should remain for every future purchase that when it can be electric, it should be. Water heaters, heat pumps, cars, stoves, you name it, everything should be electric.
and three, plant some trees, both in real life and metaphorically. It'll be an example to you, to your children, to your loved ones, in a lot more ways than one.
All right, our friend Julie is on vacation, so there won't be a small wave this week. But I will end by saying that we want to hear from you. Go to Aclymate.com or send an email to theclimatedad at Aclymate.com to submit a question for us at the show. Again, Aclymate is spelled A-C-L-Y-M-A-T-E. If your business needs help measuring, reducing, reporting, or offsetting your company's climate footprint, please reach out to my team at Aclymate. We're going to get you set up with the best, the most affordable, and easiest climate solution out there.
Thank you all for listening and make sure to subscribe to The Climate Dad where you get your podcasts and to share, like and comment on social media. I'm going to sign off by thanking you all for listening to the first year of The Climate Dad. It really means a lot to me that you've shared a part of your life with me and I really wish you all a happy and healthy new year.
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